Just 16% of German families have three children or more, which again is average for the EU
Germany would need a birth rate of 2.1 children per woman to offset deaths and stop the population from shrinking.
“Many young people come to Germany and that balances out our birth rate deficit,” says demography expert Deschermeier. “In a way, Germany profited from the economic crises in southern and southeastern EU countries.”
In 2019, the birthrate among immigrants was well above the average and stood at over 2 per woman.
The medical journalThe Lancet published a study in July predicting declining fertility rates by the end of the century, everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa.
More than 20 countries — including Japan, Spain, Italy, and Poland — will see their population halved by then. And even China will see a drop to 730 million from 1.4 billion today.
Already only 18% of Germany’s population is under the age of 20 — a marked drop from 30% in 1950. Back then one in 100 Germans was 80 or above. Now it is one in 15 — in 2040 it is likely to be one in 10.
Worldwide, Murray’s study predicts the 80-plus population will balloon from its current 140 million to 866 million by the end of the century.